Skilled Independent visa category set for rapid growth
The Albanese Government plans to increase the number of openings in the Skilled Independent category (Subclass 189) in 2022–23, most likely beginning later this month.
The category of Skilled Independent best describes Australia as a country of immigrant settlers.
Governments have increased immigration numbers through this very discretionary category, either to fill skill gaps or, more long-term, to reduce the pace of population aging.
When employer-sponsored migration is not enough of a demand, as is projected to be the case in 2022–2023 due primarily to idiotic modifications made to employer-sponsored migration in 2017–18, it is also utilized as a swing category to implement the migration program.
Additionally, it is the first category to be slashed during a recession.
Since 2013–14, when 44,984 Skilled Independent visas were issued, there have been increasingly fewer openings in this category, with a predicted low of 6,500 Skilled Independent visas in 2021–22.
In 2017–18, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton unilaterally reduced the scope of the program, which marked the beginning of the decline (without Cabinet authority).
Scott Morrison, who was Treasurer at the time, originally opposed this cut, claiming it would cost more money than planned for the Budget.
However, Morrison backed the cut in late 2018 after Dutton had made his cut on the grounds that it would "bust congestion." As part of his demographic plan, which never really presented the Morrison Government's projection of Australia's future population, Morrison secured the reduction in March 2019.
The "back in black" Budget, which was released a month later by former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, predicted the highest absolute level of population increase in Australia's history, as well as the highest level of continuous net migration, at about 268,000 people annually.
Frydenberg did not elaborate on how this would support Morrison's population-growth strategy for "congestion-busting." Not the broader public, but the business community was the target of Frydenberg's message.
Naturally, COVID-19 altered everything and brought us two years of negative net migration in its place.
However, it would be incorrect to believe COVID was to blame for the significant reduction in the Skilled Independent category from 2019 to 2020.
The underlying purpose of the downsizing was to find enough openings in the 160,000 migration program to eliminate the backlog of partner visas that had been improperly constructed. The possibility of an audit of partner visa processing by the Australian National Audit Office pressed that onto the government. This audit might report at a later date.
The Government wants to increase the Skilled Independent category to 16,652 in 2022–2023 after clearing the spouse visa backlog. This is in light of the fact that the total skill stream has increased by 30,000 positions while remaining at the current migration program level of 160,000.
The government will be obliged to expand the Skilled Independent category even more if it is unable to discover sufficient numbers of new qualified candidates in other skill streams.
The goal is to issue more invites to those who have expressed interest in moving to Australia by submitting an Expression of Interest (EOI).
An EOI can be submitted by anyone who can pass Australia's general points exam with 65 points.
The Government has recently maintained a modest Skilled Independent category by issuing a minimal amount of invitations (see Chart 2). This changed in late 2022, most likely as a result of a lack of employer-sponsored migration applications and the clearing of the partner backlog at the Department of Home Affairs.
Invitations are probably going to increase to between 2,000 and 4,000 every quarter in 2022–2023. Invitations in the Skilled Independent category could need to be much higher until employer-sponsored migration is considerably changed.
This will happen in tandem with a lower passing score, especially for high-priority careers.
There were two major occupational groups in the 21 April 2022 invitation round:
• Agricultural scientists, chemical engineers, and special education teachers did not receive invites, despite having adequately high point totals. This is most likely due to the fact that there were enough people entering these professions through other categories or because these professions were not thought to be in great demand.
• Most registered nursing occupations, general practitioners, child care managers, early childhood educators, and university lecturers are examples of occupations that received invitations at a points score of 85 or 90, and a select few occupations with a point score of 95 or 100 also received invitations (such special needs teachers and ophthalmologists).
To accomplish the huge growth in the Skilled Independent category in 2022–2023, the extremely limited variety of jobs that got invitations in 2021–2022 will need to be greatly widened.
The dearth of competent immigrants in the conventional trades will be a problem. Few visas have been granted to skilled immigrants in the traditional crafts during the previous ten years, with the exception of cooks, chefs, and to a lesser extent, motor mechanics.
Over the coming ten years, there will likely be a considerable increase in the present scarcity of trained tradespeople due to the aging of Australia's workforce in the traditional trades (such as carpenters, plumbers, joiners, plasterers, and tilers). It's unlikely that adding more apprenticeship opportunities for local students will be enough to fill the gaps.
There is an urgent need to overhaul the visa system, especially to encourage more international students to study traditional trades and establish migratory routes.
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